The “Small” States: Who’s on First?

By Constance Campanella, President and CEO 

It happens every year. An idea pops up on the legislative agenda in a so-called “small state.” The appellation typically describes a state in which the affected company or industry has a minor presence and limited growth potential as compared to other states. States typically in this category include New Hampshire, Vermont, North Dakota, Hawaii and Alaska–among others.

In this case, analysis of the proposal indicates that it is, indeed, a bad idea and one that would be costly if adopted in California, New York, Florida or other “big” states.

But, since it is in a “small” state, a decision is made to not get involved–no lobbying or advocacy of any kind. Not even a letter or phone call. After all, it is said, we have limited resources and cannot engage everywhere.

True, no one can engage everywhere, but this analysis ignores a very basic rule of legislative trends–someone has to go first. Legislators ALWAYS ask what other state has done whatever is being proposed.   

That fact was influential earlier this year when a Maryland bill threatened to regulate the Internet–from Annapolis. During each legislative hearing that key question–Has any state done this?–was posed by legislators and answered by the business community opponents. “No, no state has done this. Maryland would be the first.” The bill, whose prime advocate was Maryland’s Attorney General, was amended to call only for an interim study and passed.

The very existence of a “first” makes all subsequent state actions less risky and less difficult. Getting a “first” on the books, no matter what or where it occurs, can be the legislative equivalent of a fissure in a dam.

Wisely, advocates often start their campaigns in “small” states precisely because they recognize that the resources of potential opponents will be less, thus improving their likelihood of success. With a signed law in hand, they can take their new idea anywhere and not have to ask legislators to go first.

Another advantage for advocates in the small states? Legislators are usually part time and have very little staff support to provide perspective on the hundreds of issues on which they must deal. So advocates can organize some grassroots activity, present their case and get a bill passed. And as the examples show, the ideas then spread.

Now ask yourself, can my company or trade association really afford to ignore that “small” state?

Regardless of whether the new concept is a good one or a bad one, assuming that its emergence in a “small” state deserves inattention is a risky proposition.

Here are a couple of examples of issues that began with enactments in “small” states:

Bans on the collection and sale of physicians’ prescription data: New Hampshire, 2006

Subsequently adopted in:  Illinois, Minnesota, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Washington

Medical privacy laws: Hawaii, 2000

Subsequently passed in Arizona, California, Colorado, Connecticut, Florida, Georgia, Maryland, Massachusetts, Michigan, New Jersey, New Mexico, New York, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, South Carolina, Texas.

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Constance Campanella is the Founder, President and CEO of Stateside Associates. A veteran of 30 years of state and federal issue management experience, Ms. Campanella managed Stateside’s growth from a one-person firm to what one trade publication has called, “a behemoth in state lobbying.”

There is No App for This

By Constance Campanella, President and CEO

“If you put one foot in a bucket of boiling water and the other in a bucket of ice water – on average you would be quite comfortable.”  – Charlie Cook

Well, so much for averages.

Averages, percentages, odds–those are all worthy  tools in many settings–like Las Vegas!

However, in State Government Relations we avoid such artifices because we know that a world comprised of humans, issues, processes and politics cannot be managed “by the numbers.”

Nonetheless, people do try.

Have you ever been asked to provide percentages or odds on something happening or not happening with a bill?

I have.

Often, it is because someone needs to attach a neat little label to a bill–typically while deciding if they should hire a lobbyist. I understand that. Lobbying dollars are precious and you do not want to waste them. Parenthetically, one reason Stateside does not take any commissions when we refer lobbyists is that we never want our financial interest interfering with our advice to clients. All our lobbyist referrals are free to clients.

We know also that while people ASK for a numerical percentage or odds, they EXPECT that the assessment they receive will be the product of serious review by experienced professionals. They do not expect that you will–for example–divide a legislator’s enacted bills by the number of his sponsored bills last year and present that as a meaningful number to guide your treatment of the bill in question.

Cases in point.

A certain Democratic lawmaker in Colorado has been for much of his tenure a “backbencher.” He was ineffective and a bit unusual. No one’s choice to carry an important bill. But, thanks to the 2012 elections, this lawmaker now chairs a very important committee and is carrying–thus far successfully–one of the Governor’s key initiatives. If you look at his history, statistics would say he has a very low likelihood to pass his bills. But the reality is that he has been very successful so far this year.

Or, consider the New York State Senate which moved from Republican control to a coalition after the 2012 elections. What effectiveness rating would you put on Senate Democrats who are technically “in the majority” but not part of the ruling coalition?

We have just experienced the highest degree of legislative turnover in 50 years.

Over 50% of state legislators today have 2 or fewer years experience.

These facts and the intense partisanship that now defines most legislative bodies makes year over year predictions not only misleading but dangerous.

Those numbers mean also that we have to be well–informed about issues, states and politics and carry that knowledge to government and to our internal audiences. Experience, judgment, research, perspective, knowledge, political acuity, intelligent monitoring, smarts and sometimes courage are what successful SGR professionals are made of.

And, in a profession in which we labor constantly to demonstrate value, we have to make sure that we are thinking and communicating in 3D and HD. Dumbing Down (2D) of legislative assessments is insulting to SGR professionals and deserves to be rejected.

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Constance Campanella is the Founder, President and CEO of Stateside Associates. A veteran of 30 years of state and federal issue management experience, Ms. Campanella managed Stateside’s growth from a one-person firm to what one trade publication has called, “a behemoth in state lobbying.”

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STATE ELECTIONS: Trend Setters or Busters?

By Constance Campanella, President and CEO

Tomorrow’s election will touch every American as citizens elect a President, US Senators, Members of Congress, Governors, Attorneys General and more than 6,000 state legislators. The state ballots will also include more than 150 questions–initiatives and referenda–addressing a vast array of public policy issues.

Stateside Associates will be reporting about all state election results beginning Election Night. Our Top News memo will highlight the major races and outcomes. Maps and Charts will bring the new line-ups into focus and the State Election Guides will present results for all the races on a state-by-state basis.

You can access all of these resources by clicking www.stateside.com/state-information/elections-2012 or just visit www.stateside.com and the Election Results pop-up box will direct you to the information you seek. All resources will be updated continuously until the last vote is counted.

Clients of our firm are welcome to contact us for additional information and updates. And, we are still taking reservations for post-election presentations.

DOWN BALLOT TRENDS

Today, we thought we would highlight down ballot races that are important to state government relations professionals. Trends are poised to be sustained or arrested in contests for legislative majorities, Governor and Attorney General, while ballot questions put many of America’s thorniest issues in the hands of the voters.

STATE LEGISLATIVE MAJORITIES

In 2010, 22 state legislative chambers changed majority control–a high water mark. All were lost by Democrats whose majorities succumbed on Election Day and afterwards with party switches.

Contributing to the historic nature of 2010, 1,765 new legislators took office–the most ever for any election prior to decennial re-districting. With 2012 being the post-redistricting election year, that record number could be matched or topped, yielding the least experienced cohort of state lawmakers in US history. Some have projected that almost half of all state lawmakers may have two or fewer years of experience as the 2013 sessions convene. Opportunity? Threat? You decide.

Thirteen (13) Chambers Close Enough to Switch in 2012

There are thirteen state legislative chambers in play in 2012 in which the majority is five seats or fewer. For those chambers a switch of three seats would change the balance of power. There are also several other chambers with slightly larger spreads in which each political party thinks they have a chance to take control.

In the South, Republicans are making a strong push to take control of the Arkansas House and Senate. Arkansas is the last state in the region still to have Democratic control of either chamber. Republicans are looking for a southern sweep while Democrats hope Arkansas will prove that they can still compete in the South.

In Wisconsin, Democrats took back control of the state Senate over the summer as a result of several recall elections. However, the control was on paper only as the Legislature had adjourned until 2013 before the last round of recall elections that caused the change. Odds are in favor of Republicans regaining control of that chamber tomorrow.

The Alaska Senate and the Oregon House are tied currently, so both parties are looking for that decisive last seat in order to gain control. Republicans have a one seat majority in the Colorado House and Democrats have single seat majorities in the Nevada Senate and Iowa Senate.

While New York State is dominated by Democrats with a 2:1 party registration advantage, Republicans have controlled the State Senate for most of the last four decades. And, while many had predicted that Republicans will hang on again this year, will Hurricane Sandy–which devastated New York City and Long Island–affect the outcome?

Other states where a change in party control is possible include: Minnesota (both chambers), Maine (both chambers), New Mexico (House), Washington (Senate) and Colorado (Senate).

ATTORNEYS GENERAL

From a low point of just 14 a decade ago, Republicans have made capturing these offices a major priority and it has paid off. Excluding the non-partisan AG’s, Republicans and Democrats each hold 24 Attorney General offices. Watch the open seats in Washington, Pennsylvania and Montana to learn if the Republican march to the majority will be sustained or stalled.

Coincidentally, two nail-biter Governor races feature state Attorneys General. Montana’s Steve Bullock (D) and Washington’s Rob McKenna (R) are in open seat races that are too close to call. And, while very popular as AG’s–both are poised to be succeeded by candidates of the opposite party in races also too close to call.

GOVERNORS

There are 29 Republican Governors and 20 Democratic Governors.  Rhode Island Governor Chafee is an Independent. Eleven races dot the map in 2012 with three of those too close to call.

In addition to the aforementioned Washington and Montana races, the third nail biter is in New Hampshire, where Presidential candidate ground-games may pull a gubernatorial candidate to victory.

BALLOT QUESTIONS: TAXES

New Hampshire CACR 13, Michigan Proposal 5 and Washington Initiative 1185 (links to full text below) are ballot questions designed to limit the legislature’s ability to raise taxes. New Hampshire’s prohibits the General Court from enacting any tax on a person’s income. New Hampshire does not have an income tax right now and there are no plans to implement one. Washington’s would require a two-thirds vote to raise revenue, which includes repealing tax exemptions and any tax increase. Michigan’s ballot proposal requires a two-thirds vote for any bill imposing additional taxes or increasing the taxation base and also allows statewide initiatives to approve tax increases (similar to California).

www.michigan.gov/documents/sos/Full_Text_-_MI_Alliance_for_Prosperity_399443_7.pdf

www.gencourt.state.nh.us/legislation/2012/CACR0013.html

https://wei.sos.wa.gov/agency/osos/en/press_and_research/ PreviousElections/2012/General-Election/Documents/I-1185_complete_text.pdf

While we cannot call this next proposal a potential trend-setter (after all, NO state looks to California for fiscal guidance), California Proposition 30 is Governor Jerry Brown’s (D) plan to raise revenue and stem the fiscal hemorrhage that has defined California for more than a decade. The plan calls for raising the top rate income tax from the current 9.3% to a maximum of 13.2%. The measure also imposes a “temporary” state sales tax increase of 3.45% for four years.   And, there are many other tax-raising provisions with the funds dedicated to education and local public safety services.

vig.cdn.sos.ca.gov/2012/general/pdf/30-title-summ-analysis.pdf

BALLOT QUESTIONS: UNIONS

California Proposition 32 prohibits both labor unions and corporations from donating to candidates and candidate-controlled committees.  It also prohibits using payroll-deducted funds for political purposes.

vig.cdn.sos.ca.gov/2012/general/pdf/32-title-summ-analysis.pdf

Two Michigan questions are drawing national interest as both would represent boosts for labor unions.

Michigan Home Health Care Amendment: Would give home health care providers limited collective bargaining rights.

http://www.michigan.gov/documents/sos/Full_Text_-_Citizens_for_Affordable_Quality_Home_Care_399442_7.pdf

Michigan “Protect Our Jobs” Amendment: Would make collective bargaining a right for public and private workers.

www.michigan.gov/documents/sos/Full_Text_-_Protect_Our_Jobs_399440_7.pdf

For a free, complete list and links to state ballot questions, please email stateside@stateside.com.

Hope you enjoy Election Day 2012. With some help from Starbucks, pizza and aspirin, we’ll see you on the other side.

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Constance Campanella is the Founder, President and CEO of Stateside Associates. A veteran of 30 years of state and federal issue management experience, Ms. Campanella managed Stateside’s growth from a one-person firm to what one trade publication has called, “a behemoth in state lobbying.”